Signals & Methodology
How QCledger collects signals, scores confidence, and determines when Quorum Conditions form. Transparency builds trust.
Signal Catalog
Armed conflict events, military posturing, escalation indicators, ceasefire violations. Sources include open-source conflict trackers (ACLED-type), satellite imagery change detection, and diplomatic signal monitoring.
Protest activity, civil unrest, mass mobilization, government crackdowns. Tracked via news aggregation, social signal velocity, and geographic clustering algorithms.
Internet shutdowns, power grid disruptions, communication blackouts, infrastructure degradation. Measured through network monitoring, BGP route changes, and grid frequency analysis.
Satellite fire detection (FIRMS-type), wildfire spread, agricultural burning, conflict-related fires. Correlated with seasonal baselines to identify anomalies.
Airspace activity (ADSB), maritime tracking (AIS), shipping reroutes, NOTAM analysis, flight density changes. Detects quiet-to-hot transitions and anomalous patterns.
Commodity futures, energy prices, defense sector movements, stablecoin flows, insurance rate changes, volatility proxies. Used as confirming indicators, not primary signals.
Prediction market odds, probability aggregators, forecast model outputs, sentiment indices. Rapid shifts indicate changing consensus on event likelihood.
Confidence Scoring
Each Quorum Condition receives a confidence score (0.00--1.00) based on multiple factors. This score reflects the strength and reliability of signal convergence, not a prediction of outcomes.
Signal count
Number of independent signal categories active (minimum 3 for Quorum)
Temporal proximity
How closely in time the signals activated (tighter = higher)
Geographic precision
Whether signals share specific geographic overlap vs. broad regional
Historical baseline
Deviation from the region's normal signal activity levels
Source diversity
Number of independent data sources confirming each signal
Velocity
Rate of change in signal intensity over the measurement window
Quorum Logic
A Quorum Condition is logged when 3 or more independent signal categories spike simultaneously within the same geographic region or narrative cluster. The term "quorum" reflects the principle that no single signal triggers an alert -- convergence across independent systems is required.
Example: Eastern Mediterranean
Shipping reroutes (mobility) + Flight density increase (mobility/conflict) + News acceleration (narrative) + Insurance rate changes (markets) = Quorum Condition with 0.82 confidence
Example: Black Sea
Drone activity (conflict) + Grain corridor shifts (mobility) + Insurance rates (markets) + Energy transit impacts (markets/outage) = Quorum Active with 0.88 confidence
Limitations & Data Quality
All data is sourced from publicly available information. QCledger does not access classified or proprietary intelligence.
Signal detection may be delayed due to source publication timelines, data processing, or geographic coverage gaps.
Automated summaries may contain inaccuracies or miss context. Always cross-reference with primary sources.
Confidence scores reflect signal convergence strength, not event probability. A high score means strong signal alignment, not certainty.
Geographic coverage is uneven -- regions with more open data infrastructure produce more reliable signals.
QCledger does not provide investment advice, operational directives, or intelligence assessments.